What Lies Ahead for North Texas Real Estate in 2014
The presents are gone, the tree is down, and the ornaments placed away. Christmas is over and we are inching our way to 2014. Hard to believe an entire year has passed. Before we move to what lies ahead we must take a quick look back at 2013 to what brought us to this point in Real Estate. Unemployment remained high especially for those who have been without a job for more than two years and are off the official employment count. The launching of the Affordable Care Act, NAS phone tapping scandal and the government shut down all created unease in the market. Nonetheless the economy inched upward and so did home mortgage rates. In December 2012, the rates were at 3.5% now they sit at 4.65%, home prices in the DFW market have also increased by 10.3%. Texas is fortunate with our pro-business environment and low taxes. While other states experienced an exodus of workers Texas saw a huge influx of Buyers. In North Texas, low inventory was the norm. The market was good in the spring and early summer however, as homes sold listings dwindled, and Buyers became frustrated. New construction abodes skyrocketed as builders took advantage of the lack of existing houses on the market.
In 2014, we start the year much the same. Potential Sellers are sitting on their abodes waiting for prices to increase. This is no surprise; houses in Dallas are 12% below actual value while in the Fort Worth region are 20% below actual value according to Forbes magazine. Forbes also predicts home prices will rise 29% in the next three years. We are sure to see home prices on the upswing this year and as prices increase beyond owed mortgages, Sellers will get off the fence and list, especially those who are under water and finally seeing some relief. New construction will also continue strong at least until there is an equilibrium of existing and new houses on the market.
Rising prices are good for the Seller but no so much for the Buyer. The days of 3% interest are gone unless some unforeseen disaster occurs. The predictions I read show mortgage rates climbing to 5.5%-6.0% in 2014 of course this is an educated guess. Again many things can influence rates, however if trends continue this appears accurate. Higher rates mean less purchasing power for Buyers. A Buyer qualifying for a $200,000 home could only qualify for an $180,000 home by the end of 2014.
New lending requirements are also occurring in 2014. In January the Qualified Mortgage, QM rules go into effect. This means lenders will require borrowers to prove their ability to repay a loan. It also limits the debt-to-payment ratio to 43%. This rate is standard for many loans today however lenders will not allow compensating circumstances such as large down payments or large monetary reserves. Loans will also be harder for self-employed individuals to obtain. On the flip side, fees for originating a loan is capped at 3% of the loan. This is especially good for those purchasing lower priced houses. The new rules shall limit some potential Buyers and will have an impact on the 2014 Real Estate market.
All in all the market appears it should be stronger than 2013. The U.S. economy is strong and the ship is slowly righting itself if government will stay out of the way. For Buyers purchasing a home sooner is better than later however if you are a Seller it is tempting to wait for the prices to increase. 2014 should be an adventure, midterm elections are on the horizon, and who knows what will happen internationally. We are in this adventure together and it promises to be a good year house hunting in North Texas. See ya down the road! http://www.djlyons-realtor.com